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 »  Articles  »  News  »  Personal Spending
Credit Federal
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Personal Spending
By Credit Federal | Published 06/1/2008


Are Americans slowing their decent into bankruptcy? Last month income levels remained the same, and personal spending had a meager 0.2% increase. Does this mean more Americans are saving money?

Consumer spending levels give a good indication of how the economy is doing. Typically, the more spending the more confidence consumers have in the economy. But, higher spending could also be a reflection of rising living costs, like fuel and food.

According to the Commerce Department, personal income was up only 0.2% last month.

The chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, Richard DeKaser, said: "Consumer spending is slowing due to a combination of factors; slowing income growth, higher energy prices and a greater propensity to save. The slowing income gain is due to a weakening job market."

Referring to a fiscal stimulus package to pump cash into U.S. households, he said, "We have a challenged consumer, but we have help on the way with the refund checks, which will be significant in the summer months."

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1% as expected, slowing from a 0.2% increase two months ago.

Financial markets took heart from the muted reading on core price pressures, with the dollar advancing and U.S. government Treasury bonds rising in price.

Another variable in the economic equation: Consumers are using their tax rebate checks to pay bills

According to surveys, sales data and interviews with people from Florida to California, although the federal government tax rebates were designed to invigorate spending and kick-start a troubled economy, many Americans are so consumed by bills and the soaring price of gas that they are using the money to pay bills or to save.

So far the Treasury handed out more than $50 billion of the $100 billion in tax rebates it plans to distribute to 132 million households. But only once in the last six weeks have chain stores registered an increase in sales, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, whose weekly sales survey is a widely watched barometer.

Most experts assume that over the next six months, Americans will spend somewhere between 20 and 50 percent of their tax rebates, much like the last time the government took out its checkbook in such fashion, in 2001. That would mean $20 billion to $50 billion in fresh spending washing through the economy.

Given that consumer spending amounts to 70 percent of all American economic activity, such a surge should keep the economy growing at a modest rate through much of the summer, economists say. It would moderate layoffs if companies, buoyed by resurging sales, hang on to workers.

But by late in the year, experts say, the effects of the rebates will wear off, leaving the economy grappling with the same ills gnawing at it now: tight credit, making it hard for businesses to expand and consumers to borrow; a deteriorating job market, which is eroding paychecks; and falling real estate prices.

Families have spent beyond their income levels, getting by month-to-month by charging on credit cards and taking loans against the value of their homes. The federal government preached on the value of saving money, but now; in view of a troubled economy, the government is handing out free money and is begging Americans to splurge to stimulate the economy. While it's a good strategy, will it confuse many households?

Many households are now too worried about the rising cost of driving and eating to spend freely, even though free government cash is headed their way.

In low income households, the free government money is being spent to catchup on unpaid bills, or set aside as emergency cash.

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